“Euclid taught me that without assumptions there is no proof. Therefore, in any argument, examine the assumptions” – E.T. Bell
Challenging long held assumptions is not easy. Once assumptions are made, they can be readily taken for granted.
Until recently our retail analysis was predicated on the assumption the expenditure capture was a function of the type of offer, scale and proximity to catchment. This assumption held very well until the day I met a client who wanted to analysis the impact of brand preference on demand. A company’s brand is one of its most valuable intangible assets however until this point; an implied assumption in the model was that all brands were equal. The change in scope suddenly rendered an effective and useful model invalid.
So over Friday afternoon drinks, when all our best thinking is done, the Pracsys team debated and redefined the assumptions behind our retail analysis (this may reveal more about the Pracsys team than is necessary). The result of this process was an augmented gravity model that allows brand preference (as well as scale, offer and proximity) to determine expenditure capture.
The process of challenging a long held assumption reminded me that we operate in a complex and ever-changing environment, and it is essential not only to evaluate assumptions when they’re first made but to regularly review them to ensure that they’re never inadvertently taken for granted.
What long held assumptions have you challenged lately and how did the process result in a better outcome?
