Active Management Decisions for Parking

There is no such thing as free parking – the question is, who is bearing the cost? Actively omitting from charging fees for parking is a management cost, the cost is off set by the owner of the premises.

The Western Australian Department of Planning (DoP) released a discussion paper last year on activity centre parking. This discussion paper addresses the issues for paid for parking and how to implement paid parking in various activity centres. The document takes into consideration the State Planning Policy 4.2’s address to the parking management at primary, strategic metropolitan and specialised activity centres. Many factors “contribute to demand for access to the road system and influence time, location, duration and frequency of congestion on the road system within Perth and Peel Region”(Activity Centres Parking Discussion Paper, 2011).

The document then goes on to mention the application of good parking supply and management principles which are aimed to encourage the efficient use of available parking resources, while at the same time, influence where, when and who uses the road network.

Parking requires land, which is a scarce resource. The cost of building a single car park (individual space) is huge (approximately $20,000 according to the DoP).

“Managed parking, including limits on supply, is intended to encourage those with viable alternative options to change from driving”. According to the DoP, the solution is to put a quota on car parking for activity centres. The methodology for determining the quota (Perth planned for a population of 3.5 million) is to remain under lock and key with the department. This makes it difficult to negotiate parking in the future, and assumes that the quota set now is correct, and must remain correct forever.

Lets use Murdoch activity centre as an example. The quota does not allow for the exchange of unused parking bays by one activity node (St John of God) to that of another (Murdoch University). This means that if the department is wrong in their allocation, then the demand for parking is not met by the market; there is an inefficient allocation of finite resource. Rather than implanting such rigid controls on quotas, the parking at an activity centre may be capped. If an activity node has excess supply of parking, they may trade this resource for another activity node to meet the markets demand.

Limited supply at an activity certainly dictates the amount of parking available, however, the vision of the activity centre should also be essential in determining the amount of parking allocated.

  • Set outcomes required based on the ‘vision’ of the centre, particularly in terms of the user mix, activity diversity, activity intensity, employment and accessibility
  • Let market allocate resources (constrained by outcomes required above) – by enabling exchange (trade rights) at market price
  • Continually measure and report (benchmarking)

 

 



Mapping Culture

The World Value Survey Cultural Map 2005-2008

The above is a fascinating representation of the values of different countries. Interestingly, the distinctive groupings demonstrate that values are fairly similar across geographical areas.

World Value Surveys were “designed to provide a comprehensive measurement of all major areas of human concern, from religion to politics to economic and social life”. A significant thing that Inglehart found when studying the data is that two main dimensions dominate – Survival/Self Expression values and Traditional/Secular-Rational values.

The dimension relating to Survival/Self Expression Values correlates with a shift from industrial to post-industrial societies, in which wealthier countries that no longer have to worry about physical and economic security (the nitty gritty of day-to-day survival) are able to place a much greater focus on quality of life and self-expression.

Traditional/Secular-Rational Values primarily reflect the importance of religion within countries, with traditional societies prioritising respect for authority and family values (citizens more often opposed to abortion, divorce, gender equality and homosexuality).

Over time, the surveys have identified that as societies become wealthier and begin to prioritise self-expression, they also start to question traditional values. This often involves transition to greater tolerance of diversity, respect for individual freedom, democratic decision-making and an emphasis on values such as creativity.

When people have a greater input into how their society is run, they experience greater trust in authority and institutions and a greater sense of mutual responsibility. This enables political and economic systems to perform more effectively and better reflect the needs of the people, which in turn generates further wealth and economic development.

Once again we can see that measurement of a broad range of indicators (including some seemingly intrinsic values) can produce important insights into how societies operate and interact – enabling decision-makers to make much better informed decisions about how to influence positive change.

 

                                                                       

Source: Ronald Inglehart and Christian Welzel, “Changing Mass Priorities: The Link Between Modernization and Democracy.” Perspectives on Politics June 2010 (vol 8, No. 2) page 554. www.worldvaluessurvey.org

Thanks and credit to Professor Scott E Page of the University of Michigan for a fascinating course on ‘Model Thinking’ that inspired this blog.   (https://class.coursera.org/modelthinking/auth/welcome?type=logout&visiting=%2Fmodelthinking%2Fclass%2Findex)

 



The Third Industrial Revolution

The Economist recently published an interesting article about what they are calling the “Third Industrial Revolution”. Once again, I start a blog post with the words “The Economist recently published an interesting article on…”.

http://www.economist.com/node/21553017

We’ve actually been taking an interest in manufacturing and productivity recently, and Michael and I have both posted recently on the subject.

http://pracsys.com.au/time-to-rethink-our-comparative-advantage-in-manufacturing/

http://pracsys.com.au/manufacturing-clusters-and-wages-in-china/

The main inspiration for declaring this new industrial epoch is the development of 3D printers, allowing manufacturing to be de-centralised. The argument is that these new printers will essentially allow anyone to manufacture anything, anywhere, by downloading the relevant design and then printing off a copy.

As well as 3D printers, robots are becoming increasingly dextrous, software is getting smarter, many novel materials are emerging and a range of web-based services are emerging. Two consequences of these developments proposed in the article are:

  • Decentralisation of manufacturing, which implies reduced economies of scale.
  • More customisation. In the past (and still today), producing large numbers of similar products, according to a limited range of specifications, has been much cheaper than customising products for each buyer. Decentralised production and smaller batches will allow a much greater range of customised products to be created at a competitive cost.

While the Economist might have gone too far in describing the transformative powers of 3D printing (economies of scale will likely continue to be a feature of manufacturing for the foreseeable future), these new developments in production methods may bode well for Australian manufacturing.

Firstly, the use of labour in manufacturing has been decreasing for some time, decreasing the share of total cost due to the cost of labour. To quote the article: “some carmakers already produce twice as many vehicles per employee as they did only a decade ago”. An increasing number of the jobs are now in upstream design, engineering, IT, logistics and marketing. This is good news for a country with a lot of highly educated and innovative – but expensive – workers, like Australia. Australia has had an enduring competitive disadvantage in manufacturing in the high cost of our labour – a lot of us can simply earn more doing something else. However, as labour’s share of total cost in manufacturing decreases, and what labour is used is required to be more highly skilled, then our disadvantage is reduced. Design, engineering, IT, logistics and marketing are things that we can do, and do well.

Our other competitive disadvantage in manufacturing is our small and isolated market. More populous regions of the world have the proximity to enough customers to be able to scale up their manufacturing, giving them greater economies of scale. Being nearer to enough of their customers also means that this advantage isn’t then counter-balanced by high transport costs as these centrally-produced goods are then dispersed to their buyers. If, as the Economist believes, that new technologies will reduce or eliminate the advantage of scale in manufacturing, then an opportunity opens up for Australian manufacturers – producing competitively-priced products for the (still small) domestic market, and exporting uniquely Australian or custom products to the rest of the world. As well as finished goods, it also creates the possibilities for our manufacturers to become more integrated into global supply chain. It is also worth bearing in mind that products that have a higher knowledge component in their manufacture tend to sell at the highest margin. Producing at a high point in the value chain like this is what is required for high labour cost manufacturing.

Realistically, economies of scale in manufacturing are likely to still be with us for some time, however. 3D printers will more likely be employed as part of a longer chain of production, producing complex components more effectively than traditional methods. Still, these developments may help to level the playing field for our struggling manufacturers.

 



What if Bill was one of us?

Is Australia a society that favours property speculation over invention and innovation?

The linked article by Paul Wallbank explores the career path of Bill Gates if he had been born in Australia.

http://www.smartcompany.com.au/business-tech-talk/what-if-bill-gates-had-been-born-in-australia.html

Australia’s tax system penalises entrepreneurs for taking risks, while permitting negative gearing and capital gains exemptions on homes.

Wallbank imagines that this could have produced an Australian Bill Gates who when hit by funding restrictions and conservatism would have given up his technology dreams to become a partner in a safe law firm – with a string of investment properties to signal his ‘success’.

Australia’s continued economic growth and development requires innovation. But with bank loans prioritising equity and the tax system favouring homeowners, people are putting all their investment eggs into the property basket and there isn’t a lot left to fund new ideas.

Should we be reforming our tax system to enable and encourage the next generation to think big and follow their dreams?



Online Retailing

The Sydney Morning Herald recently published an article about how Australians have started to save again, and the effect that this is having on retailers and the building industry. People are paying back their home loans, being increasingly cautious about taking on new debt, and are simply not spending.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/nation-of-hoarders-creates-havoc-for-house-and-contents-20120330-1w3do.html

As stated in the article, this is what people do during a recession, rather than during periods of relatively strong growth and low unemployment, as we are seeing now. It would be interesting to see how this pattern plays out in the different parts of our “two-speed economy” (i.e. resource vs non-resource states), but that is beyond the scope of this blog. Instead I’d like to talk about online retailing.

Retailers (the non-virtual kind) have become increasingly concerned by the threat of online retailing in recent years, and who can blame them? Going out to the shops typically involves traipsing out to one of the suburban shopping centres, driving around their car park, seemingly forever, to find a spot, weaving through the dense, mazed crowds of other shoppers, sorting through a bewildering array of unsatisfactory items, to find something that I want and that is reasonably priced, occasionally having to deal with unhelpful sales assistants, and then coming home sweaty and exhausted, with half of my Saturday gone, and often with one or more unplanned purchases. Alternatively, there is the internet: stay at home, look around at a few websites to compare brands and prices, click the mouse a few times and enter a credit card number, and the item shows up at the door a few days later, generally at a lower cost.

I’ve quite recently had personal experience of this myself. I recently had to buy an adaptor that converts a PS2 plug (the old, round plug that you’d have on keyboards and mice/mouses) to USB, so that I could run a Korean keyboard I’d just bought into my laptop.[1] I did an inordinate amount of running around looking for one, going to an Officeworks, a Dick Smith, a Harvey Norman, and a random computer shop in Belmont, all to no avail. I then phoned another Dick Smith, further away, to be told that they had what I was after (assuming they’d really understood what I was asking for), and that it would cost $30 – for a plug! What a way to spend Easter Saturday. Thirty dollars was almost what I’d paid for the keyboard itself, so I decided to try online instead. In about 30 seconds my friend and shopping companion, Butch, had located what I was after (on his iPhone, in the car out front of the computer shop) and bought it – at a cost of $3.49, with free postage. I’m expecting it this week. Much of a contrast? While writing this post I also received a call from my mum. She was out at another branch of Dick Smith, and had located the item I was after, at the comparatively low price of $14.95. They’re not even consistent!

I have a second anecdote in this vain (because I’m getting myself worked up). A few months ago I wanted to buy a board game called Settlers of Catan. I went first to Games World. They have a reasonable range of interesting board games and did have Catan – for $80. There was no way I was going to pay that, so I went to Amazon. The set I ordered was sent all the way over from the UK, for $45.64, with free postage. It arrived in less than two weeks.

With these sorts of differences in price and convenience, is it any wonder that sales are leaking to online retailers? I think what is more amazing is that it hasn’t happened to a greater extent. Incidentally, the Productivity Commission has conducted an inquiry into the retrial industry in Australia, including the effects of online retailing:

http://www.pc.gov.au/projects/inquiry/retail-industry/report

The PC estimates the online retail’s domestic market share to be at 4%, with around a third of these going to overseas websites. They expect sales to grow by 10-15% per year for the next three years.



[1] This whole problem arose because when I ordered the keyboard I didn’t pay enough attention to see the big, fat photo of a PS2 plug on the eBay advertisement – buyer beware still applies on the internet!



Typology

One train stop from the Perth CBD sits a burgeoning main street oriented activity centre anchored by a major government infrastructure corporation, with a growing mass of small and medium engineering and professional services firms, a vibrant entertainment scene, and gradual encroachment of medium and high density housing.  The activity centre is vibrant for at least 18 hours a day 7 days a week.

By contrast, 13.5 kilometres north of Perth sits an internal mall anchored by national department stores chains.  The quality of retail offer draws residents from throughout the northern sub-regions of the City with carparks overflowing every Thursday night and Saturday. Public transport services are intermittent, with busses running down a major road past the centre.  A public library and small community centre are the only truly public spaces, with a service station being the only node activated outside of retail operating hours.

Both of these centres are very successful at meeting the needs of specific users, but few would argue that they perform the same function.  Yet within Perth’s Strategic Growth Plan – Directions 2031 and Beyond, their position in the defined hierarchy of centres is the same.

This inconsistency exists in many urban planning strategies in Australia (plus many regional strategies) due to both an ongoing belief that defining a hierarchy of centres is necessary, and the wide range of factors that are considered by planning agencies in establishing such a hierarchy.  These include:

  • Encouraging a spatially logical, and equitable network of centres
  • Recognising the historic (and potentially political) importance of a centre
  • Recognising the current physical characteristics of centres including major activity drivers and infrastructure
  • Foreshadowing places of priority public sector investment
  • Foreshadowing desired changes in the scale and function of centres

By taking into account all of these considerations, the resulting classification of centres can be, at best, illogical and, at worst, counterproductive to the development of a productive, vibrant and resilient urban system.  This is due to the hierarchy not answering some fundamental questions, including:

  • Are we assessing current performance or anticipating future performance?
  • Are we placating local interests or are we planning for the best possible outcome for our City?
  • Does a spatial distribution that looks balanced on a map equate to the best possible outcome?
  • Do all public sector investment agencies agree and support the priority areas identified in the hierarchy?

A far more effective tool for strategic activity centre decision-making is to move from the assignment of a hierarchy based upon a wide range of factors, to assignment of an activity centre typology based upon a single area of focus – the current function of a centre.

Pracsys defines activity centre typology as the manner in which centre in relates to, and engages with its users (residents, workers, visitors and enterprises).  Based upon the activity resulting from the interaction of users it is possible to classify commercial activity centres as one of four types (Figure 1).

Figure 1. Activity Centre Typology

This allows for the comparison of ‘apples with apples’ in a system where scale takes a back seat to function.  It also provides a more constructive language to use in setting a vision for a centre, i.e. remain performing the same function, or evolve over time into a different typology.

Finally, defining the typology of an activity centre provides a more useful, common language for different disciplines to utilise in defining and designing targeted interventions.  Pracsys draws upon an extensive benchmarking database that can help inform engineers (civil, traffic and structural), urban designers and planners as to the drivers that trigger a change in typology.  These are broken down into:

  • Commercial drivers
  • Accessibility drivers
  • Social drivers; and
  • Amenity/environmental drivers

Based upon an understanding of these, ultimate plans and designs can be developed to accommodate appropriate solutions, and encourage the desired change in function.

Focusing on how activity centres function provides a simplified framework in which City development can be planned.  It places the onus on justification of performance and constructive planning rather than loose, subjective and often political arguments for attraction of infrastructure investment, to focus decision-makers on initiatives that work to support the interaction between a centre and its existing and future users.

 



Manufacturing Clusters and Wages in China

The Economist recently published an article about the increasing scarcity of cheap manufacturing labour in China, an issue that has emerged in recent years.

http://www.economist.com/node/21549956

Chinese living standards (i.e. wages) have been increasing rapidly since reform and opening up in the late 1970s, and the shortage of cheap labour is a continuation of that trend. It once seemed that there was a limitless supply of impoverished workers, eager to come in from the countryside to get a relatively high-paying factory job in one of the country’s industrial centres. Nowadays, the factories are finding it harder to attract and retain workers, and wages are soaring. It is most definitely a good news story for the Chinese people, as the benefits of the country’s industrialisation are filtering down. The downside, however, is increasing business costs in the country’s export-driven manufacturing sector. As well as wages, there have also been increases in land prices (presumably as a result of strong economic growth), and increased environmental and safety regulations. Once again, it means a better life for ordinary people in China, but also higher costs for the country’s manufacturers.

There has been speculation for some time that manufacturing of basic goods might move on from China, to other, lower-wage developing countries. This would be nothing new, as during last century, such manufacturing moved from the United States to Japan, then to Korea and Taiwan, and then on to China. Vietnam, India, Indonesia and the Philippines have all been seen as potentially the next base for low-cost manufacturing. Presumably Chinese labour costs will eventually reach the point where Chinese factories no longer have a comparative advantage in bulk, low value-added manufacturing. After all, the United States once had a world-beating manufacturing industry producing and exporting these sorts of goods.

However, the article suggests that there are still advantages to manufacturing in China that offset the effects of rising labour costs. It gives the example of PPC, a company that makes connectors for TVs, and who considered moving to Vietnam. However, it found that Vietnam lacked reliable suppliers of specialist services that it needed for its production process – such as nickel plating, heat treatment and special stamping. Ultimately, PPC did not decide to move out of China, and instead started automating its plant in Shanghai.

This is a classic example of the benefits of an industry cluster, or at least an agglomeration. An agglomeration is when a number of producers in the same industry co-locate to share common infrastructure and suppliers. They are then able to access specialist services along their supply chain readily, and at lower cost. This is a form of economies of scale. In addition to these agglomeration benefits, a cluster involves a high level of interaction and linkage between firms at various stages of the supply chain. There is joint research and innovation, and major projects are undertaken jointly. Skilled employees tend to circulate among the firms in the cluster as well, resulting in highly skilled workers and knowledge flowing freely between firms.

So, does China have manufacturing clusters? The intuitive answer would be “yes”. There is considerable manufacturing activity co-located in a handful of manufacturing zones: the Pearl River Delta in the south, including the Shenzhen Special Economic Zone; Bohai Bay in the north, around Beijing; and about half way between, the Yang Zi River Delta, around Shanghai. At the very least, these are substantial manufacturing agglomerations. These agglomerations (or perhaps they are clusters), confer benefits on manufacturers located there that outweigh the increasing wage costs. Illustrating this point, The Economist quotes a GE vice chairman as saying that labour costs are often 30% lower in countries other than China, but that other problems outweigh this cost difference, such as the lack of a reliable supply chain.

In addition to the benefits of co-location/clustering, it is quite possible that China’s manufacturing industry will become either a) more capital intensive (as was the case with PPC’s plant in Shanghai); and/or b) more innovative. Either of these would increase Chinese labour productivity, and so further offset the cost of rising wages. Incidentally, this is the sort of response to rising labour costs predicted by classical economic theory.

So, what does all this mean for China’s manufacturing competitors in Australia? Will low value-added manufacturing become more viable in this country as the supply of cheap labour in Asia decreases? The short answer is probably not. Australia doesn’t have the population to support a global scale industrial agglomeration with domestic demand alone, and the idea of manufacturing and shipping large quantities of clothing or vehicles from Melbourne or Adelaide to… anywhere, really, seems unrealistic.



Time to rethink our comparative advantage in manufacturing

Australia is a country of inter-industry subsidies. We have a long history of taxing efficient industries from which large government revenues are derived – to hand out cash to inefficient, uncompetitive industries. In the post-war era, the car industry was protected with import tariffs and supported with government handouts – because to have an Australian car was a badge of nationhood in turbulent times. This was (and still is) a triumph of self-delusion of economic reality.

Over the past decade there has been only marginal growth in manufacturing output, and manufacturing employment has fallen. Manufacturing is still a structurally important sector – it employs 950,000 people and accounts for nine per cent of GDP – but it has lost its way strategically. In a world of the high Australian dollar, it is pointless to continue to produce large scale, standardised manufactured goods with no innovation content. We have neither the required cost base, nor the innovation capacity to compete with better-equipped economies. So let’s move on.

What we can do it to be a supplier of manufactured goods that build on our comparative advantages. We have an educated workforce, the ability to design and make sophisticated manufacturing equipment, a strong research and development capacity for developing new products – and a structural competitive advantage in mining equipment and processes and high-quality food manufacturing.

It is inevitable that the high Australian dollar, which makes manufactured exports price-uncompetitive, will result in one of two outcomes.

This shift is already evident in the ABS business characteristics survey – which shows strong recent growth in some categories, including specialised industrial manufacturing and professional and scientific instruments. By contrast, motor vehicle exports and construction exports are sharply down.

But what is the role of public policy in aiding the required transition from 20th century large-scale manufacturing to 21st century human capital innovation? First, the government must promote flexibility in labour markets. Second, it must work to reduce input costs and promote economies of agglomeration around Australia’s distinct and enduring competitive advantages. Third, it should focus its innovation resources not at propping up dying industries, but in backing emerging, knowledge-based manufacturing. Finally, it must recognise and incentivise the commercial linkages between institutions of research (especially universities and the CSIRO) and institutions of commerce.

This is the only viable pathway to a prosperous manufacturing industry in 20 years’ time.



Don’t Eat the Rich

Treasurer Wayne Swan has recently shifted his attention away from the Labor leadership prize fight, to a fight against the rich. While the prize fight will undoubtedly see a rematch before we know it, the phoney class way will only lead to a singular, definitive result – alienation of the Australian public and erosion of the political mandate of the Labor Party.

The basis for Mr Swan’s attack on very wealthy Australians is that “rampant money making… is dissolving the social contract between the rich and the rest” – the contract John Maynard Keynes claimed was the basis for the survival of capitalism.

Keynes was the most famous and influential economist of the 20th Century and his fiscal “pump-priming” policies are the basis for the current government spending epidemic in the name of economic stimulus (think the Building the Education Revolution program and the National Housing Insulation Scheme). Keynes was also a very rich individual, so he was fully aware that wealthy people pursue vested interests just like most others in the community. Property developers, real estate agents, pharmacists, newsagents, to name a few, try to carve out a territory and protect it in the pursuit of self-interested profits. Heck, even politicians allocate society’s scarce resources to industries (e.g. car manufacturing) and geographic locations (e.g. marginal seats) as mechanisms to ensure their political future. Not only is it hypocritical to point the finger at the self-interest of a few wealthy entrepreneurs, it is also counter-productive. While this government props up inefficient manufacturing industries in their own self-interest, using tax revenue from the high-profit, high-productivity industries (through mechanisms like the new mining tax), it is weakening the structural base of the economy.

The belief that government is omnipotent, and can control the economy and society through its policies, is evident in such claims as “this government has created 750,000 jobs since we came to office” made by the Treasurer.

Given that the total jobs created since the 2007 election (when the Labor Party came to power) numbers 750,000, the Treasurer appears to be taking the credit for every single new hire over that period. Of course this is nonsense. The only jobs the Federal Government has created are those new employees it has hired to work in it various portfolios – and most of those are in Canberra. What Mr Swan may be able to claim is that his government’s policies partly created a suitable environment for business activity to grow, resulting in increased employment.

Keynes understood that self-interest is part-and-parcel of capitalism, and government intervention in the economy was not always the right course of action. An economy made up of self-interested individuals acting rationally in a fair and open competitive environment, and a functioning price mechanism, is not only more efficient, but also more likely to lead to favourable social outcomes than one run by government – no matter how well-intentioned.

So Mr Swan would be better off focusing on creating the conditions for long-term economic growth, with many more millionaires and high average wages, than his current pre-occupation with short-term wealth re-distribution, underpinned by attacking our most successful entrepreneurs.



Crowd Dynamics

The Economist recently published an interesting article on crowd dynamics and urban planning that is relevant for urban design.

http://www.economist.com/blogs/babbage/2012/01/crowd-dynamics

Space Syntax, an architectural consultancy, has developed a model of how accessible and integrated – and therefore how busy – individual streets are. This is important because the movement of people is linked to economic activation and vibrancy. For example, activity centres are more successful when there are a lot of people are moving past shop fronts and interacting with each other. Large numbers of people moving along a street means more commercial activity and more social interaction – surely the definition of a vibrant urban space.

Vibrancy is also enhanced by a mix of transport modes, and a certain amount of congestion. A certain amount of congestion slows people down and encourages interaction with others around them, and their surroundings more generally.

This principle is similar to the thinking behind London’s Exhibition Road Project. Exhibition Road in South Kensington is home to several of London’s many museums, and planners are trying to capitalising on this and to create a broader node of cultural activity – “London’s cultural heartland”. As part of this project, the street is being redesigned into a “shared space”. Kerbs and street markings have been removed, so that cars, bikes and pedestrians are all moving amongst each other. Think Saturday night in Northbridge, but less rowdy. This project is intended to make the area more pleasant for pedestrians and also safer, as drivers are forced to pay more attention to where they are going and, presumably, drive more slowly. I’m not completely convinced that walking among moving vehicles, or even parked ones, is pleasant. However many cities in Asia have streets without curbed footpaths, and people move among a variety of vehicles, so this sort of design is not without precedent.

Another principle of good activity centre design is that there should be a good line of sight through an activity centre. The reasoning behind this is that if people can’t see a reason to keep walking, they’ll probably stop. Researchers in Germany have reached a similar conclusion, finding that when pedestrians are given the choice of two paths (simulated ones in the experiment, in a virtual environment) they will choose the path that offers the longest line of sight.