Just like people, with activity centres there is a difference between growing bigger and becoming more mature. Some grow early and mature late, some are older and wiser than their years, and some simply wont get any bigger or more mature (my wife may begrudgingly place me in the last category).
The economic maturity of a centre is defined by the quality, not quantity of activity. Immature centres are those typified by low productivity population-driven activity whilst mature centres are characterised by high productivity activity, ‘creating’ wealth through the export of goods or services.
By assessing the concentration of quality employment located within a centre, we can identify the relative maturity of a centre, and begin to develop economic development strategies appropriate to this level.
The matrix on the left shows four degrees of activity centre maturity, based upon the relative concentrations of Knowledge Intensive Consumer Services (KICS) and Knowledge Intensive Export Oriented (KIEO) employment.
Commercially-oriented activity centres often begin life as an Immature Population Centre, servicing the basic consumer needs of a local population catchment. These centres are the economic ‘kids and teenagers’ of a city. With low concentrations of KICS and KIEO employment, they demand increasing amounts of attention (catchment) and food (consumption) in order to keep growing. Eventually growth must stop as competitive forces impact upon floorspace productivity, or statutory controls (the parents) limit individual land-uses (in particular retail).
For an Immature Population Centre to mature into adulthood, consumption–based growth must be combined with a shift in focus to intensity, diversity, employment and connectivity. In time, an increase in the concentration of higher order population-driven services (KICS including education and healthcare) will occur, with the centre gradually becoming a Diverse Population Centre – a young adult!
Carving a place out for oneself in the world, the young man or woman may be tempted to rest on one’s laurels; however the life has only just begun……
The end-game is the development of Mature Diverse Strategic Centres. These are the ‘wise elders’ of the city. Through the creation and export of goods and services, they provide economic leadership for the urban environment, attracting wealth and providing resilient support to the city in times of change and trouble. Some centres achieve this level of maturity through the benefit of natural competitive advantages. Others need to develop it through targeted initiatives that support knowledge creation, innovation systems, technology and commercial development, and efficient supply chains.
In Australian cities, commercially oriented activity centres located outside of CBDs are most often Immature Population or Diverse Population Centres. More mature and diverse centres lie within the inner suburbs, having grown up over decades (and even centuries), benefiting from the effective density of a city’s centralised employment characteristics.
The consequences of Australian cities continuing to encourage centralised quality employment, and decentralised settlement patterns, are becoming well understood. Looking beyond the often arbitrary hierarchies assigned by planning agencies, there is an urgent need for activity centres within middle and outer rings to mature much faster than before, becoming productive adults before their time. This will require a considerable targeted effort on behalf of both the private and public sector.
Amazing as always
The metaphor of maturing works well for me, and the descriptions of the stages of maturity are good. But what’s lacking to me – and to extend the metaphor – is the ‘nature versus nurture’ question. Is it enough to presume that a centre will mature organically (i.e. by nature alone)? Or should we be taking a more active involvement throughout (particularly at the start) to help determine the eventual outcome. I believe that we are lacking ‘nurture’ in our planning and development – in other words just letting Centres evolve organically. Whilst this may lead to the same ultimate outcome, I would argue that this is not necessarily the case and it is by no means the most efficient or desirable outcome. Equivalent to the liberal parents who do nothing to curb the excesses of youth!