Posts Tagged ‘population’


Job measure short of the mark

Employment self-sufficiency (ESS) is a metric that is without doubt a useful planning tool, but nonetheless cannot be turned to every task.

ESS measures the quantity of jobs available in a given area as a proportion of that area’s labour force. For example, the North-West Corridor of Perth has 41 percent employment self-sufficiency (2006 Census), meaning that 41 percent of the labour force living in that sub-region have the potential to gain a job there.

This is a valid measure at the sub-regional level as it provides a good baseline indicator of  economic sustainability. It helps answer questions about whether a population can be sustainably supported in the long-term. 

Where ESS falls down is when it is applied to individual developments. Increasingly authorities are requesting its application in this manner. Pracsys recently looked at a proposal for 2000 dwellings in an in-fill residential subdivision of Perth. Part of the requirement for the project was that it include a statement of employment self-sufficiency with a view by statutory authorities that a higher percentge would be more desirable.

In this context the use of ESS does not take into account the economic role that a particular development will play within the sub-region.  Focussing on ESS creates an impetus on developers of residential activity to ‘design in’ s jobs where there is little logic for them to exist.  This is ultimately destined to fail as the provision of land is only one component of an economy, and therefore unlikely to soley determine an enterprise’s location.

A focus on local ESS for developments also moves the emphasis of statutory authorities away from supporting sub-regional activity centres in the creation of agglomeration economies, and ultimately knowledge intensive, export orented clustering. 

A much more relevant measure for individual developments is a determination of how it will contribute to the overall sub-region’s economy. To answer this a series of questions need to be asked.  These  include:

  • How will the development interact with major employment nodes? 
  • What knowledge, skills and abilities will the development’s population bring to the sub-region?  
  • How will developers support investment in knowledge infrastructure within the sub-region? 
  • How will the development support the economic activation of population-driven activity in surrounding activity centres?

Measuring the potential of a particular development is much more than a numbers game and ESS is not the catch-all.


The more the merrier

Australia has a lot of things, but what it doesn’t have is a lot of people.

And while that may be one of the reasons many of us like to live here – clean, open spaces and all that – it does put us at a disadvantage in uncertain economic times.

Take our nearest neighbour, Indonesia. A country of 210 million, it boasts a population 10 times bigger than our own. Jakarta itself has a population of more than seven million and that’s just one of more than a dozen major cities in the Muslim nation.

Rather than these hordes of people being a drain on the economy, they actually help propel it forward. Essentially because of the nation’s ability to self-generate.

While it is true that Indonesia is not dissimilarly affected by the restricted global access to finance and the ability of trading partners to spend, they are more capable of generating an economy from within.

Take just one area, that of energy. In Indonesia, there is a significant deficit of supply in relation to demand for power to the point that if you go out of the major cities there is very little, if any. And while affordability has some part to play in this, it is mostly to do with a lack of supply.

The demand for electricity is expected to go up to 250 million barrel of oil equivalents by 2025 – more than tripling today’s 80 million BOE.

With electricity just one example of what this huge economy is demanding from within, Indonesia clearly has a greater capacity to sustain itself.

It is also worth noting that the nation went through its banking sector pain back in 1997, when inflation was briefly 65 percent, and most of the banks were then nationalised. 

Boasting the world’s biggest Muslim population, Indonesia also has a very different way of doing business that has stood it in good stead.

The Islam way is not to go into debt so much as to encourage business partners. This is reflected in the financial system for instance via the Islamic bond, which looks like a very good business tool in today’s uncertain environment. 

Essentially, you can’t make money from money, so rather than charging interest you get your returns by another way, usually through an equity interest or equity interest equivalent. This type of instrument may encourage a greater emphasis on partnerships whereby investors take a more longer term view.

Now, I’m not suggesting all Indonesia is covered by Islamic bonds, but if you take them as an indication of how Muslims prefer to do business it is yet another reason why somewhere like Indonesia is in a pretty good position, comparatively speaking. It is not, like so many of its trading partners, debt ridden.

While many economies are reeling, the likes of Indonesia and China still have GDP growth, at 6 percent and 8 percent respectively, that would be the envy of the Western world. Australia’s GDP contracted in the last quarter.

These big, albeit developing, nations appear to be in a much better position to outride the economic stormfront. And it has a lot to do with having lots of people.