Archive for the ‘Feasibility’ Category


Sustainability: A high stakes game

There is risk involved in any new development, but it’s a matter of how much risk we are prepared to take.

Pracsys has done a lot of financial analysis to determine whether various sustainable technologies, such as recycled water, are viable compared with current methods, such as traditional scheme water, in the developments of the future.

There is no doubt we need to embrace alternative technology; the problem is the capital costs associated with these technologies are often very high.  Add the fact that current technology is so heavily subsidised and the comparative cost really starts to add up – and the stakes get higher.

In making investment decision does the developer risk short and medium returns in the knowledge that cashflows will be positive in the future? Alternatively do we sit on our hands, watch and wait and hope that such technologies become relatively more affordable once others pave the way and economies of scale are achieved?

No-one wants to be the first to jump, the one to pay a premium for taking that leap of faith. Particularly given that we’re talking about the basics that everyone should have access to – water, power, transport. If the end user doesnt percieve the full value of these technologies then the developer will need to subsidise the price to make it attractive to market.

If Government, for example, were to embrace sustainable alternatives, who would pay for it? Would it put the basics beyond the reach of lower income residents?

There are some advantages in being the first to take the leap, to set benchmarks for others to follow. Water is a scare resource in Perth; it’s a fact that we need a more sustainable method of water supply.

recycled water

The trick is to strike the right balance between the  risk and the benefits, both economic and environmental, of such action. And this means Governments making some hard decisions, working to sway public opinion on issues such as recycled water, and ultimately being convinced that they should take a chance, even if the figures don’t stack up in the here and now.


Don’t develop in isolation

Having access to land for a development or precinct is one thing; knowing what to do with it is a whole other ball game.

It is not simply a case of “build it and they will come”. If it is not planned correctly from the beginning, a development can quickly become a costly white elephant.

Pracsys is undertaking the economic analysis of a site next to the Mandurah train station which Landcorp would like to buy and develop over the next 10 years.

A transit orientated development (TOD) is directly impacted by transport, but there are broader issues than the traffic passing through. The fact that people are coming and going from an area does not necessarily make it a viable concern.

Planners need to determine what the site can bear in terms of residential development and, therefore, commercial and retail.

 The relationship between retail and residential development is relatively straightforward: the former is generally driven by the latter. Less clear is the relationship between residential and commercial space.

It is pointless to park a lot of commercial floor space without understanding what it would mean to the immediate area and surrounding region. How much commercial floor space is currently available, what is it used for and how functional is it?

land-development

The viability of a new precinct needs to be examined within this context. What would the development add to the area? Who will be attracted to it, what can it support and what will drive demand? How would it be connected to other precincts in the region?

There must be a specific strategy in place to ensure the viability of any development before a sod is turned. The number one lesson is: Don’t develop in isolation.


Smart City Radio: Innovative Entrepreneur

Ron Kitchens is the CEO of Southwest Michigan First, a non-profit organization dedicated to being a catalyst for success in Kalamazoo, Michigan. Ron talks about incubating new companies in this economy and how smaller businesses can thrive when large corporations fail.

Eric Mathews is the founder of Launch Memphis, an organisation that nurtures technology startups in Memphis. Eric talks about how technology can help seed an entrepreneurial community and be used to bring entrepreneurs together.
Click here to view this podcast.


Innovation 101: Lessons from Texas to Spain

These recent articles from The Economist offer many salient points for discussion, as well as valuable lessons for Australia’s future.

The first, In Search of A New Economy, looks at the changing economy in Spain, where public spending on research and development has tripled, but the private sector has barely budged. The country’s new Minister for Science and Innovation argues that change is needed throughout the economy.

The second, Beyond Oil, analyses the state of Texas and just how well placed, or otherwise, this behemoth is for life after the oil dries up. Energy is still high on the agenda, but from some unexpected sources.


Directions 2031 takes Perth a step forward

By 2031, it is estimated another 556,000 people will be living in the Perth and Peel regions. Population growth brings with it myriad challenges, not the least of which is how to accommodate the extra bodies and cater for their needs.

Planning WA recently released Directions 2031, a new strategy for land use planning, for public comment.

It takes up where the previous government’s Network City left off. A pivotal moment in planning, the 2004 policy produced a range of aspirational ideas for the city’s future. Directions 2031 moves into the area of more measurable goals, although it falls short on detail.

Perth is rapidly heading down the path of endless sprawl, but Directions outlines the need to curb this in favour of a connected city with much better public transport. It proposes increasing the average density per hectare in greenfields from 10 dwellings to 15. Critically, it proposes that 47 percent of this urban growth be infill development – more than 120,000 new dwellings in the inner and middle suburbs.

This is not unrealistic but it will require fundamental changes in the way we think, live and plan for the future. 

Perth is not prepared to embrace density; quite the opposite in some inner suburbs where it is vehemently opposed. It won’t be easy to convince a population used to the quarter acre block model to downsize.

The building and development industry will also have to adapt – look at smaller blocks, more town houses, better use of public open space.

So, too, utilities and other key infrastructure. Will, for example, the water authority be able to cope with extra demand in the infill, assuming there is even room for such developments? 

There are ways to steer development in a certain direction, with the strategy proposing limits on land supply in certain areas and changing density zoning in others.

But Directions 2031 leaves a lot to the market at a time when the market is not really ready for change. This is a step in the right direction but does it go far enough? We need more detail about how the government proposes to fulfill its aims and reach its targets. If it wants Perth to head in a different direction, it is going to require more than a little political will.


Trading hours: Why Perth should stay open longer

Now that daylight saving has been given the heave-ho, the testy topic of retail trading hours is back in the headlines and clogging the airwaves.

Will Perth get extended shopping hours? Will the shops stay open until 7pm or 9pm? Whatever way the politicians go (no referendum for this one), there is certain to be people unhappy with the decision.

But it is worth noting that even an hour’s extension in the time we have to shop will bring real benefits to our activity centres, be it the Perth central business district or  suburban shopping centres.

As it stands, Perth operates largely mono-cultural activity centres that are heavily dominated by retail – a series of shopping malls surrounded by a sea of carparks. When the shops shut, the carparks are soon emptied, with little if anything to hold customers there past 5.30 or 6pm.

In the city, the shops shut and before you can say ‘but I haven’t done my shopping’ there is a mass exodus of people heading out of the CBD. Activity grinds to a halt. 

Any increase in trading hours will immediately increase the overlap between shopping and socialising, such as heading out to restaurants or the movies, and will result in greater interaction of diverse uses, thereby invigorating activity centres. 

A good shopping district open later will attract more restaurants and other entertainment facilities to the area. We would see more multi-purpose centres, with shops, restaurants, bars and cinemas interlinked and feeding off one another.

Rather than rushing to get a few groceries on the way home from work before the shops shut you could catch up with friends for coffee, a drink or an early dinner and then shop at your leisure – or vice versa. 

An extension of retail trading hours will also reduce anti-social behaviour, with more people out and about in areas currently abandoned within half an hour of shops closing.

The longer the overlap between diverse uses the more beneficial for all concerned, but even some overlap is better than nothing. It not only creates more vibrant centres but more sustainable ones, too.


Job measure short of the mark

Employment self-sufficiency (ESS) is a metric that is without doubt a useful planning tool, but nonetheless cannot be turned to every task.

ESS measures the quantity of jobs available in a given area as a proportion of that area’s labour force. For example, the North-West Corridor of Perth has 41 percent employment self-sufficiency (2006 Census), meaning that 41 percent of the labour force living in that sub-region have the potential to gain a job there.

This is a valid measure at the sub-regional level as it provides a good baseline indicator of  economic sustainability. It helps answer questions about whether a population can be sustainably supported in the long-term. 

Where ESS falls down is when it is applied to individual developments. Increasingly authorities are requesting its application in this manner. Pracsys recently looked at a proposal for 2000 dwellings in an in-fill residential subdivision of Perth. Part of the requirement for the project was that it include a statement of employment self-sufficiency with a view by statutory authorities that a higher percentge would be more desirable.

In this context the use of ESS does not take into account the economic role that a particular development will play within the sub-region.  Focussing on ESS creates an impetus on developers of residential activity to ‘design in’ s jobs where there is little logic for them to exist.  This is ultimately destined to fail as the provision of land is only one component of an economy, and therefore unlikely to soley determine an enterprise’s location.

A focus on local ESS for developments also moves the emphasis of statutory authorities away from supporting sub-regional activity centres in the creation of agglomeration economies, and ultimately knowledge intensive, export orented clustering. 

A much more relevant measure for individual developments is a determination of how it will contribute to the overall sub-region’s economy. To answer this a series of questions need to be asked.  These  include:

  • How will the development interact with major employment nodes? 
  • What knowledge, skills and abilities will the development’s population bring to the sub-region?  
  • How will developers support investment in knowledge infrastructure within the sub-region? 
  • How will the development support the economic activation of population-driven activity in surrounding activity centres?

Measuring the potential of a particular development is much more than a numbers game and ESS is not the catch-all.


Planning change for the better

Anyone familiar with the classic Westerns knows that when the big guns come riding into town, that town is in for a real shake-up. Whatever the outcome of the inevitable shootout, come sun-up life will have fundamentally changed.

Things might be a little more civilised in 21st century Western Australia, but outsiders can still wreak havoc if townsfolk are not prepared for the onslaught of change. 

Broome is a town at the crossroads after the State Government announced James Price Point, 60km north of the tourist hotspot, as the site for the Kimberley liquefied natural gas (LNG) hub. 

As big guns go, this is right up there — a multi-billion dollar driver industry that will have a profound impact on the communities of the Kimberley, and Broome in particular. Just how these communities emerge when the construction stage dust has settled depends on the planning for the arrival. Town planners and policy makers cannot be reactive, they must be proactive.

There is no doubt that with such a major piece of infrastructure on its doorstep Broome will experience a massive demographic change. The nature of the project attracts a far more diverse workforce than is currently the case. The industry and employment base  of the town will expand substantial, as will the resident population with the incoming people likely to expect more particular lifestyle options and amenity levels than has been the case up to this point.

Some town planners tend to think, ‘well, have we got enough land to cater for this influx of workers’, and once they’ve sorted where they’re going to put them, and whether the utilities are adequate, they move on. 

But land is only part of the equation. If a town like Broome is to profit from the arrival of the big guns it is essential to adopt an integrated planning strategy that considers everything from the changing employment base and residential requirements to environmental sustainability.

The scale of this project will position Broome as the major centre of the Kimberley  well into the future, but only if the planning is done properly. For lessons in how not to do it, planners, governments and community leaders need only look a little further south, to the Pilbara town of Karratha.Karratha is dominated by the resources sector, indeed it is the reason for its existence, but the general planning for the town across the board has tended to be reactive and ad hoc. One of the negative results of this approach is the fact that the tourism sector in Karratha is virtually non-existent, a situation that will take a long time to rectify.

And Broome has more to lose. It has a strong tourism base, the impact of an overheated local economy could be catastrophic long term. The planning strategy must consider how it can retain what is good about the town without losing sight of the need for change. This doesn’t just happen, it has to be planned.

Whatever the shelf life of this driver industry, planning must not only factor in how to accommodate the changes it will bring over the duration, but how the community will cope once it’s gone. When the big guns move on to the next town, as they inevitably do, those left behind want to be able to celebrate the changes they brought, not mourn what might have been.


Flying high: Making the most of airports

The global economy is beating to the sound of a different drum. Forget location, location, location. It’s all about access, access, access.

A vibrant airport is crucial to being competitive in such a market. We need to get away from the idea that airports are simply places where people fly in and fly out and turn them into strategic employment activity centres – multi-purpose areas that deliver on a number of levels.

Airports rely on aeronautical revenue, such as landing fees and passenger charges. But if that is all they draw their revenue from, they will never be competitive.

Those that adopt other non-aeronautical uses, such as retail, introduce extra income streams and ultimately may even be able to drop charges for airlines. All airports are competing to draw airlines to their hub – those offering a better value proposition will have the edge.

The idea of an airport city, or wider aerotropolis, is taking shape around the world, with bustling centres realising the benefits of developing an airport that has many characteristics of the CBD.

At Changi Airport in Singapore, about 100 million passengers pass through per year with an estimated spend of $28 per head – or $2 billion a year in revenue. Smaller domestic airports in Australia, such as Perth, are estimated to attract around $9 a head.

Passengers are a captive audience, with many having to spend hours at an airport waiting for the next flight. The more attractive their surroundings, the more likely they are to spend up while they wait. In conjunction with the higher average income of airline passengers, this means that retail sales in major airports can be up to three times greater than shopping malls, with JFK airport in New York turning over an average of $18,000 per square metre in 2007.

Amsterdam doubles as a shopping mall with retail, an art gallery and fitness centres; Changi has cinemas and saunas; Bangkok is building a golf course; and Dubai Central is spending $42 billion on office towers, a mega-mall, golf course, as well as residential accommodation for airport workers.

There are also competitive advantages in locating different types of businesses in or near the airport precinct. The economy is more mobilised and the success or otherwise of many companies often depends on how quickly they can deliver goods. Manufacturing firms that rely on high speed delivery are off to a flying start if they are within quick access of the airport.

Global companies, too, are becoming increasingly aware of the benefits of locating regional head offices near the airport. Research shows that high-tech professionals are travelling a large proportion of their time because they know the knowledge-transfer and networking benefits of being face to face with clients and colleagues, but they waste precious hours getting to and from airports. An office located near the airport enables executives to fly in, carry out a two hour meeting and fly back out. 

Authorities need to designate the airport as a very important employment sector and activity centre, and develop public transport that delivers to that area. The demand for employment land at airports in Australia is already increasing, particularly around Australia Trade Coast in Brisbane, and to a lesser extent in Perth where mining services have clustered for access to mines in the State’s north and south. However, Australia has yet to experience anywhere near the level of investment in commercial office, hotels, conference and leisure facilities and supporting residential development for airport employees that is happening globally.  

We must focus on what we should do with this surrounding land to maximise competitive advantages, and airport masterplanning currently occurring in many Australian cities must begin with a strategic employment plan. Putting up a billboard advertising available land is not the answer. The area will fill up with non-strategic businesses and the markets the economy wants to capture will simply fly elsewhere.


Sustainability: What it means for our cities

If Australia wants to be a prosperous nation in the future, it needs to pull together to ensure economically sustainable growth. With more than 75 percent of us tipped to live in cities by 2050, our urban environment in particular needs a huge renovation.

Below is Michael Chappell’s Sustainability: What it means for our cities presentation which he has presented at various workshops over the last month.

sustainabilty-what-it-means-for-our-cities


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